by sandy82 » October 14th, 2005, 11:32 pm
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If there's a common left-wing view, I disagree with it...whatever it is. On the other hand, an uncommon one might be interesting to read about. I do admit that my range of reading material is broader than it used to be. I'll even read Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker. :wink: In the past I looked only at the cartoons.
Chemical and biological weapons had been in Iraq. No question about that. There were large stockpiles at the time of Gulf War I. Saddam Hussein had killed hundreds of Kurds at Halabja in 1988 with nerve gas. (The Kurds had a website with pictures of the bodies. It may still be operational.) Saddam Husssein had used the same weapons against the Iranians in their 198/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i-88 war. You're right: if he had the weapons, he certainly had the antidotes.
One of the questions is, when did he have them and when did he get rid of them. I don't know what the shelf life is for sarin and the others, but there has to be one. Our own inspectors found evidence of such weapons (in the sense that one finds traces of gunpowder) before they were kicked out in the mid- to late-9/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/is. Hans Blix and Mohammed El-Baradei's people found nothing recent/substantial after that. After the May 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i3 "victory" in Gulf War II, David Kaye went in, convinced he would find something; and he left, convinced there was nothing there. I recall the discovery of the stored antidotes, but they were old...contemporaneous with the chemical and biological weapons that Iraq had formerly possessed.
Syria is a live possibility. Transit across Iran in exchange for assistance in other fields is possible, too. There were two retired Russian/Soviet generals in Iraq advising Saddam Hussein's government/army on useful tactics against the Americans and British until several days before March 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i, 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i3. They were given medals. (And the tactics did change. Remember the pictures of hundreds of surrendering Iraqis in GW1? It didn't happen in GW2.) US troops also took some shots at the Russian diplomatic caravan leaving Iraq for Syria shortly before GW2 started--written off as "a big mistake." But, all that said, nobody found significant traces of anything.
Part of the atmospherics is expectations. We said we were sure that the weapons were there, and we were going to find them. We set the bar too high. We couldn't meet our own loudly proclaimed expectations. Having set the standard, we couldn't meet it. If there were a "smoking gun", we would be shown the smoke twice a day.
I tend to discount the notion that we had such clear evidence in 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i2-/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i3. One reason is that, if we genuinely had been so certain, we wouldn't have felt the need to rely on the outlandish notion of Nigerien uranium. George Tenet reportedly told Condi Rice and Steve Hadley twice not to use that information, which he said was at best doubtful. It found its way into the January 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i3 State of the Union address anyway. People wanted to say it very badly, and apparently they wanted to stop others from disputing it. Hence Special Prosecutor Fitzgerald and the present grand jury. Whether or not Fitzgerald finds out who ruined Valerie Plame's career is a different matter.
It seems clear to me that the Iraqis never bought yellow-cake uranium in Niger. The claim was later whittled down to the Iraqis' "seeking to buy" yellow-cake. "Seeking to buy"...that reminds me of Jimmy Carter's claim that he had "lust in his heart." Sounds good, but how do you fashion a standard to measure the...what?...intensity of the seeking or the lust? The notion of any foreigners entering Niamey unnoticed is a non-starter. And who would they have "sought" the uranium from? Nigerien uranium is a French concession from the mines to the refining to the export. One overall entity in ultimate control from start to finish. As I understand it, all the employees are French. It is very unlikely that the French would sell uranium to Saddam Hussein after the sanctions were put in place in the 199/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/is. If nothing else, they wouldn't have wanted to get caught. They also have their independent force de frappe, and they produce the highest percentage of electricity from nuclear power plants of any developed country.
No question that Saddam Hussein had had biological and chemical weapons, certainly through the 198/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/is and in 1991. After the Israelis bombed the Osirak reactor in 1981, the atomic program was necessarily postponed. In 2/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i2-/\[url=(https?:\/\/[^\s\[]+):$uid\](.*?)\[\/url:$uid\]/i3 our people said that the chemical and biological weapons were there and that we would find them. We didn't find them.
GBD, I hadn't heard about the intercepted phone calls. I'm sure you did hear about them. My skepticism is not directed toward you. It's more general in nature. In order to satisfied, I wouldn't accept transcripts, much less translations. I would want my own experts (American and Iraqi; technical, linguistic, military, cultural) to listen to the original tapes for accent, dialect, profession-related abbreviations and slang. Then I would want to do stress tests on the recorded voices, broad-scope analysis of background noises, see the originals of the chain-of-custody documents and interview everyone in the chain(s). On and on. It would be ideal if one could trace the actual contents of those reported phone calls from original, verified tapes through all the various intermediate steps, unbroken, until the contents reached whatever media packaged the final information and delivered it to the public. Otherwise, it is possible that the phone calls were reported but, in fact, were never made. Just like the yellow-cake uranium or the meeting in Vienna between an underling of Saddam Hussein and an underling of Osama bin Laden. The meeting was widely reported, but then it was recanted.
Frankly, my disillusionment with the war is not based solely on the WMDs that weren't there. There are many other things. The happy crowds that weren't there, the alleged links between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden that weren't there. The oil pipelines that we can't keep the insurgents from attacking. Why don't we ask the Turks how they prevent insurgent attacks on pipelines? The same pipeline goes through southeast Turkey where the Kurdish guerrillas waged a years-long insurgency. Why could the Turks protect the same pipeline that we can't?
And after yesterday's fantastic (in every sense of the word) teleconference with the 11 soldiers in Tikrit in which our "great progress" in Iraq was extolled, tonight all of Baghdad is black. The insurgents have cut the electricity. According to the polls released in the past several days, more than half the American public reportedly believe the war was a mistake. Small wonder.
Jerm, I think this has been a case where the media both manipulated and was manipulated. As with the Iraq war, so with NBC's Matt Lauer. Why was he the only newsie allowed to interview Bush down on the Gulf Coast at mid-week? He was also the only one to be invited on a helicopter ride with the Governor of Texas when he inspected hurricane damage from the air. When it comes to manipulation, is Matt an -or...or an -ee? :wink: Or is it that his hair won't blow in the wind?
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